Vegas Recap Part 1

Don't have the stamina to make the blog I oughtta, but here's a rundown for now.

I took 3k to Vegas but only 2.1k of that was earmarked for cash games, and the 2/5 game that I had planned on playing had a $500 buy-in. It was a very optimistic approach which basically banked on some early successes, which I never found due to a variety of factors. The main factor however was that I ran like shit throughout the trip, managing to book one small win early on, a good win a little later which was actually bigger than any of my losses individually. . . but I was basically demoralized and struggling with a drastically reduced bankroll for most of the trip following a total lack of success in the tourneys I played and several pretty fast, big losses at the cash tables.

Like I mentioned before- confidence and morale and bank roll are almost EVERYTHING when it comes to poker, with perhaps bankroll management being the key stone holding it all together. After all, it doesn't matter how you do in one particular session, week, or even month of full time play if your bank roll management is in order as you've planned ahead in such a way so that no matter what happens you won't be taken out of the game over any short term series of events.

When the money starts running out a deep panic sets in. . . money lost hurts a little more, the good, aggressive plays are harder to make (you wanna make a $300 bluff on the river with your LAST $300? Or maybe you'd rather spend it on a buffet, a few drinks, some gas money for home, or even, god forbid, put it back in your bank account and call it a day?)

Some other reasons for failure-

A growing sense of desperation and/or futility from repeated lousy card outcomes. You lose with JJ 1/2 a dozen times in a row until finally you make a bad stand in a lousy spot, refusing to believe. Fact is JJ will lose many times in a row occasionally- it's an incredibly vulnerable hand especially once all 5 cards are out. The chance of the hand going down in flames goes up dramatically as well depending on how many opponents are in the pot with you. This is all to say that it certainly shouldn't come as a surprise when it loses repeatedly in succession, and what the job of the professional is is to treat isolated results as nuetral, mathematical events. The only thing the pro needs to analyze is their play of the hands- ie did you maximize your chance of winning the hand? Did you lose as little money as possible when you were behind? Ultimately your own decision making process is the only thing you have control over yet it is so easy to become convinced that the cards are trying to tell you a story, and that story is that you're a fucking loser! (A quick calculation using poker stove shows that JJ is only a 77% favorite against any 2 cards- this means that if you go all in with JJ from the small blind and the big blind calls without even looking at their cards first they will win on average almost 1/4 times!)

Of course when I say "you," what I am really getting at is the fact that all these destructive, painful, counter productive thoughts were flowing willy nilly through my own sensitive anxiety ridden noggin, and I wound up playing far less poker than I would have liked and so my results are ultimately representative of a much smaller sample than I intended. . . and in any small statistical sample wild swings are possible, and even probable. A large source of anxiety amongst new players stems from a basic lack of understanding of what a significant sample size is to demonstrate your true edge. For instance with online tournaments sample sizes are widely recognized as insignificant until you've played over 1000 tournaments! That's actually quite a lot- can you imagine being a big money loser after 200 tournaments and having that be no solid indication of skill? Especially considering the many hours of play, focus, and dedication that goes into the process of trying to play 200 mtts profitably?

I'll try and edit/add later. I have a few hands I played that I really felt like I learned a lot from, so I'll try and go over them and discuss my mistakes. Today I'm not sure I'll get to the online pokers but this week I plan on putting together a mad session and really making a run for the top of the June leaderboard for the BBP contest I'm in. Wish me luck, I'm eager to make a crushing re entry into the game I know and love best at this point- online mtts and sit and go's where I am able to play a much bigger volume of games for my money and hopefully get into that elusive "long run" a lot faster than I can in live play.